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The Electrification Staircase

A look at what can be electrified first, ranking what is most feasible and where it has the largest impact

2040 · v1.0

The Electrification Staircase

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The Electrification Staircase 2040, version 1.0: end uses ranked on six steps, from A (commercial now in most places) to F (speculative, possible commercialisation beyond 2040).

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How the staircase works

The Staircase ranks end uses across multiple industries that currently run on fossil fuels, from heating a new apartment to coastal shipping. We looked at each against the fossil-fuelled incumbent used currently to identify where electrification is commercially used already, where it is likely to be piloting in the coming years, or where infrastructure might constrain it for the years to come.

“Most, many some” qualifies that the same end use can be supported by electrification in one Member State and in pilot in another, depending on power prices, grid capacity and building stock.

A step on the staircase reflects whether the electrified technology is commercially available, how it costs compared with its incumbent, and whether remaining barriers tend to be technical or otherwise. Readiness does not mean it is deployable at-scale, however, as an end use can be on the lowest step but be minimally rolled out.

The Staircase’s development

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About the Authors

The staircase is co-authored by Dr Silvia Madeddu (Schneider Electric), William Drake (Liebreich Associates), Thomas Butler (Regulatory Assistance Project), Adrian Hiel (Electrification Alliance) and Michael Liebreich (EcoPragma Capital and Liebreich Associates).

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